tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post9113864461434684018..comments2024-02-12T23:25:09.583-08:00Comments on Overweening Generalist: Modest Proposals: Toward Consciousness and Survival: Global Warmingmichaelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13526042582094867513noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-62741343707158935912013-09-04T03:14:21.491-07:002013-09-04T03:14:21.491-07:00@ Tony: I hope people can find your thoughts and d...@ Tony: I hope people can find your thoughts and data elsewhere too: this stuff is valuable and my blog is a really obscure backwater in the Scheme of Things, innit?<br /><br />Anyway, thanks for the added value!<br /><br />@Eric: I've long planned to take a stab at your (and my) ungainly human problem. It may take some tinkering. I seem to be most of the time peeking in through the windows on the Q. michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13526042582094867513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-2019703853579243662013-09-03T16:29:27.005-07:002013-09-03T16:29:27.005-07:00Interesting piece. One ungainly human problem wor...Interesting piece. One ungainly human problem worth addressing: how to make a decent living and lead a reasonably happy life.Eric Wagnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04312033917401203598noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-64929811538925783592013-09-03T06:06:24.041-07:002013-09-03T06:06:24.041-07:00Concentrating Solar Power
Concentrating solar powe...Concentrating Solar Power<br />Concentrating solar power (CSP) is a solar thermal system that focuses sunlight, amplifies its intensity, thus creating very high temperatures that can be create steam to drive a turbine. CSP units are already in operation in Spain and the American Southwest. Though only suitable for regions that get reasonably long periods of bright sunlight, they have the advantage of being able, at suitable scale, to produce up to 100MW of electricity. <br />The Desertec Industrial Initiative (DII), a coalition of mostly German companies, has already begun to build a 500MW solar farm near the desert city of Ouarzazate, Morocco. It will use parabolic mirrors to generate heat for conventional steam turbines. This is intended as a first phase of project to build solar and wind farms across North Africa and parts of the Middle East, with the aim of providing 15% of Europe’s electricity supply by 2050. <br />It has been estimated that, if just 0.3% of the Sahara Desert were used for CSP, it could meet all of Europe’s energy needs. Indeed, in just six hours, the world's deserts receive more energy from the sun than humans consume in a year. A North Africa to Europe network will be very expensive to build – long transmission lines will have to pass under the Mediterranean and over long distances to the north of the continent – but is it not a project far worthier than subsidising industries that are gradually cooking our planet? <br />Wind Power<br />Innovation, subsidies, economies of scale have led to wind power becoming more efficient. The use of carbon fibre, automated production, new airfoil designs, greater blade length, and increased sophistication in airfoil design are leading to wind creeping closer to parity with fossil fuel-derived electricity. <br /><br />Prices for wind-generated power in Latin America are plummeting. In a few parts of the world – Uruguay and the TWE Carbon Valley Project in Wyoming for example – wind is already priced at $80 per MWh, as against $90 per MWh for coal. That price is without any form of government subsidy. On April 16, 2012, Spanish wind turbines produced 60.5% of power demand within the country. <br /><br />At Kyushu University, Japan, researchers have found a way to increase the efficiency of wind turbines. The ‘wind lens’ is an inward curving ring that surrounds a turbine's outer blades. This creates low pressure in front of the turbine, thus accelerating the airflow round the blade tips, resulting in an increase of up to three times current wind power output. A working prototype is being tested – so far very successfully. The turbines will eventually be built at scaled up size, Attached to a series on hexagonal-shaped platforms, and then tethered out at sea, where wind velocity is optimal. <br /><br />tony smythhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17771763749137149585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-89615814346210776722013-09-03T06:04:58.180-07:002013-09-03T06:04:58.180-07:00Solar photovoltaic energy
The cost per watt of sol...Solar photovoltaic energy<br />The cost per watt of solar photovoltaic energy has fallen by 7% per annum during the last 30 years. The price per watt of solar modules has fallen from $22 in 1980 to US$1/W in 2012, a harbinger of cost-competitive solar. What this means is that, by 2021/2022, solar will become as cheap a source of energy as coal, and be half its cost by 2030. Other than module fabrication, there would be no carbon emissions. By 2025, solar power is likely to be cheaper than power from the grid in 90% percent of all countries.<br />On May 25th 2012, Germany obtained one third of its energy from solar on that day. Solar power's share in the country's electricity production rose to 6.1% from 4.1% the previous year. China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gasses, its capital city Beijing wreathed in a miasma of smog, has announced that it will raise its solar energy target from 21 to 35 gigawatts by 2015. India too intends to double its use of solar power. <br />Behind the scenes, lots of innovative companies and academic labs are involved in Solar PV. Here are some examples: <br />• An American company V3Solar has a product called the Spin Cell already in production. This solar panel has a conical shape which catches the sun over the course of its entire arc, enabling it to capture more of the sun’s energy than a flat panel. It has another advantage: when solar is concentrated by a lens it creates large amounts of heat, requiring use of expensive heat resistant solar cell materials. This new device avoids this problem because it can spin, thus keeping it cool. <br />• New methods of printing solar cells on any surface have been developed by a Massachusetts Institute of Technology team. <br />• A paper published online in the journal Nature Materials gave details of a solar thermo electric device that produces power with an efficiency roughly eight times greater than current solar panels, yet uses much less material than conventional photovoltaic panels, and thus will likely be cheaper to produce commercially. <br />• Once again at MIT, a new discovery that can incorporate a layer of new transparent organic PV cells within window glazing would mean that, theoretically, any window of any building would be able to generate electricity during daylight hours with 12% efficiency.<br />• A joint German- American firm has developed a new silicon-based solar panel with a holographic foil that it claims delivers 28% energy efficiency, against a typical 17% in current panels. The panels need 90% less silicon than standard solar modules, thus reducing costs. If the company’s claims are substantiated, then generation costs may reach grid parity.<br />tony smythhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17771763749137149585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-50953928015526560232013-09-03T06:02:07.096-07:002013-09-03T06:02:07.096-07:00Renewables and energy efficiency
In a world of dwi...Renewables and energy efficiency<br />In a world of dwindling resources, efficiency must be placed right at the heart of our approach. This would include: weather proofing existing houses and requiring that all new housing be zero carbon, lowering thermostats, introducing more efficient heating, refrigeration and air-conditioning systems, improved automobile mileage via diesel, hybrids and electric engines, and use of more efficient industrial motors. At the moment, only 15% of a car’s energy reaches the wheels. Studies show that aggressive investment in energy efficiency could eliminate the need to construct more than 1,300 power plants in industrialised countries in the next two decades, and result in net savings. In the United States, studies have shown that cost-effective measures could reduce national consumption by between 30% and 75%. Moreover, these measures would be cheaper to implement than purchasing any other form of electricity. To make this work, the introduction of mandatory efficiency standards is imperative. <br />Secondly, there needs to be a complete ban on construction of new coal power plants worldwide. This would be relatively easy to implement in Europe and North America, but very difficult to get the agreement of the BRIC countries, home to roughly one third of the world’s population. Additionally, existing coal power plants need to be phased out. At the moment, even if the U.S. and Europe were to cut CO2 emissions by far more than the currently targeted 20%, the total increase in Asian emissions would offset this by a wide margin. Couple that with a new Asian middle class - double the entire population of Europe - and you have a recipe for disaster. A coal ban will be very difficult to implement, but is of the utmost necessity if we are to avoid temperatures rising above 3°C. <br />Thirdly, possibly the quickest and most effective short-term initiative is the removal of market distorting subsidies given to fossil fuel based corporations. Estimates of globally subsidies given in 2012 to production and consumption of fossil fuels amount to $775 million, and possibly as much as $1 trillion. Fortunately, momentum for subsidy reform is now growing. 134 nations have recently declared support for this measure. In addition, we need a rigorously enforced cap and trade system, in which governments set a limit on greenhouse gas emissions. It is unacceptable that the externalities caused by fossil fuel use are dumped upon the taxpayer. From now on, the principle that the polluter must pay must be strictly enforced.<br />Fourthly, there needs to be an increase in funding for climate change research. <br />We also need to support family planning worldwide, for our numbers are now beyond the ability of this planet to support us. There may also be a need for geo-engineering and reforestation.<br />And finally, a vast increase in the use of renewable energy is essential. Let’s look at the pros and cons of renewables in some detail. <br />tony smythhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17771763749137149585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-47602419328645767012013-09-03T05:44:19.970-07:002013-09-03T05:44:19.970-07:00Ah, a topic dear to my heart.I'm writing book ...Ah, a topic dear to my heart.I'm writing book called 'Fukushima nd the coming Tokyo Earthquake'. Its mostly finished. Though lots of it is about nuc energy, there's a long chapter on climate change. Basically, there is no debate among scientists:97.5% of them say "yep, its real, its happening and its manmade".It's the fossil fuel companies who benefit enormously from things as they are now that attempt to muddy the waters, and will destroy scientific careers if necessary. This is especially so in the US. A great book to read on CC is 'With speed and Violence' by Fred Pearce. We could very well reach a tipping point where the climate gets out of control. There are number of ways this can happen. <br /><br />However, rather than all doom and gloom,in next post, I'll paste some good news about renewables, for excellent progress is being made here.tony smythhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17771763749137149585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-81433468216239504252013-09-03T00:18:17.188-07:002013-09-03T00:18:17.188-07:00I appreciate the distinction made between sciences...I appreciate the distinction made between sciences of "experimental verification" vs. those who do science by measuring and observing, mathematizing and theorizing. The origin of life on Earth ideas: there are more than enough interesting guesses based on analogies and simulations. But it can't be re-run again from actual initial conditions. I still see this as legit science, but not the same as doing physics, chemistry and biology experiments, publishing your results, then having other labs try to replicate your experiments. <br /><br />Studies on dark matter, dark energy, strings, the role of the Higgs, and black holes seem related here, but I think it's more complicated. Each science has slightly different allowable internal latitude by which to publicly speculate...and eye-catching claims by reputable scientists are, despite what the official lines about "Science" say, always a part of that endeavor. They're the smart ones, they know most of us don't understand their numbers or how they got 'em (esp. members of Congress and the Supreme Court), but they know the educated public looks to the marvels of Nature for religio. <br /><br />So, for example, a dude like Hawking can speculate that "one day we may know the mind of God." (That's about getting FUNDING! Funding to work on some little puzzle-piece projects that are hard to explain if you aren't a specialist in the area.)<br /><br />I can't not write about this stuff. It's got its own drama and humor built-in. And I love the complexity. If we read a guy like Lomborg - whatever we suspect about his politics - it's sobering...especially when you live amongst the Berkeleyans, who were the first to have signs put up as the enter the city limits: Nuclear Free Zone<br /><br />And the Bomb was dreamed up...where?<br /><br />And let's not even talk about whether a container with a 4 inside a triangle on its underside is recyclable on not. Many of the Berkeleyans get really worked up over this. <br /><br />Also: I appreciate the skepticism about Scientists as High Priests. I find the Intergovernmental Blah Blahs as having compelling rhetoric, even if some of them were dead wrong in the past. (They've been this Org since 1988) New algorithms, much better sensing apparatuses, superior models do come along. But moreso: a logarithmic acceleration of reports from all fields, multi-disciplinary. <br /><br />Past dissentual data jump-off point?:<br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling<br /><br />But: are we supposed to pretend that these people don't have a sense of their own political power? How many hundreds of billions have been spent on renewables just since 2000, largely spurred by their reports?<br /><br />The challenge for the generalist types: follow the actual science. There's enormous money to be made by groups who want the public to deny warming just as there are goldmines in the eyes of some groups who want to scare the crap out of us. So: beware the FNORDs. Try to get better and better at assessing claims made, and cheer on those innovators who may have a Wild Card in the works that will make clean renewables ultra cheap. <br /><br />(Hic sunt leones there, too, among the "We've got the thing that will save the world if you only give us $150 million to get it off the ground" types. And they do exist. And they're perhaps more believable if they believe their own rhetoric completely?)michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13526042582094867513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-35927021945433217792013-09-02T20:12:48.673-07:002013-09-02T20:12:48.673-07:00Nothing like opening a nice wormcan
and climate sc...Nothing like opening a nice wormcan<br />and climate science is a mess of<br />wigglers.<br /><br />People who have actively tried to do<br />something about it have been dumped<br />on for tampering with nature..GRIN<br /><br />So the alarmists have stirred up the<br />layfolk without achieving anything<br />except to propose an air tax or a<br />mad scheme to sell carbon credits.<br /><br />The cited scientists were all sure<br />an ice age was coming a few short<br />years ago. So we seem to have been<br />lucky enough to avoid the big ice<br />covering the planet.<br /><br />When one of the more vocal types<br />said the sun didn't have anything<br />to do with the warming trend, I<br />began to pay a lot less attention<br />to them. There's an advantage to<br />looking at all the factors, not<br />picking and choosing to fit a narrow specialist view.<br /><br />I think real science (firmly set<br />into experimental verification) is<br />the best thing that ever happened<br />to humans. I also think that a lot<br />of the fuzzy headed speculation<br />done by lab smocked priests of<br />scientism are a stain on the honor<br />of those who wrestled out what we<br />learned the hard way.<br /><br />I also cover my ass every time I<br />hear that there is an undeniable<br />census on anything humans do.<br /><br />Maybe the doomsayers are all psychic<br />in that case the so-called antropocene<br />will be a single molecule thick<br />strata in the fossil shale to mark<br />the end of homo sapiens.<br /><br />We have the tech to solve any of<br />our problems, all we have to do is<br />stop pissing away all of our<br />resources on crap like three letter<br />agencies who think destroying the<br />world is a reasonable game plan.<br /><br />Loft a mylar mirror into space, use it to tune the albedo.<br /><br />Seed the desert portions of the ocean with nano sized iron.<br /><br />Build a big tritium reactor and<br />suck the atmosphere into a giant<br />compressor plant and store<br />the CO2 as dry Ice.<br /><br />Until the leadership gets serious<br />and starts doing something why are<br />we worrying about it. Of course<br />electing a bunch of nuts who want<br />Jeeeze to come down and save us<br />aren't going to do anything until<br />they wind up like the Romans did.<br /><br />All it took was one volcano to<br />knock them into a 400 year dark<br />age. Their survivors were surrounded by things they couldn't<br />duplicate.<br /><br />The Net will save us because of<br />people like you trying to spread<br />some semblance of civilization.<br />It may seem like too much work<br />for too little gain but every bit<br />helps.<br /><br />Above all do not despair, we can<br />do anything if we work together.<br />If it takes all our cities drowning<br />to wake up human decency then let<br />them drown and say good riddance<br />to a bad idea...GRINAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com