tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post4503464464529896714..comments2024-02-12T23:25:09.583-08:00Comments on Overweening Generalist: Robots and Technological Unemployment: Further Considerationsmichaelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13526042582094867513noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-57589560534782764092013-11-14T16:09:23.780-08:002013-11-14T16:09:23.780-08:00@Tony-
Oh yes: Marshall Brain's robot site. D...@Tony-<br /><br />Oh yes: Marshall Brain's robot site. Dude started the site How Things Work then sold it for $250,000,000, which forces my reserves of envy to the surface.<br /><br />Gotsa read me some dat Martin Ford now...michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13526042582094867513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-19881092431223379682013-11-14T16:07:06.510-08:002013-11-14T16:07:06.510-08:00@Anon-
Not only did (seemingly?) no one notice th...@Anon-<br /><br />Not only did (seemingly?) no one notice those epochal changes, but another way to look at our democracy is that some of us see what's up ahead, but we're marginalized, demonized, persecuted. Then, when that which was warned about comes to pass, only a few notice that "back then" there were some who'd warned about it. We stumble into a crisis, then muddle our way out of it. David Runciman says it better here:<br />http://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/nov/08/trouble-with-democracy-david-runciman<br /><br />This gets to something you seem to be hinting at, and which is a major theme in RAW's work: the persecution of heretics. If you're a mad genius and have some heretical idea you're fucked...unless you happen to be operating at just the right historical moment.<br /><br />I liked the lines "My feel is on those who feel..."<br /><br />Re: unintended consequences: let's take those as given. They WILL occur, just as sure as every medication has side effects.michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13526042582094867513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-88788549462387738652013-11-14T05:50:42.101-08:002013-11-14T05:50:42.101-08:00Oops, wrong link. Should read roboticnation.blogsp...Oops, wrong link. Should read roboticnation.blogspot.com. "My brain is going Dave, I can feel it. Can I sing you a song?" "Go ahead HAL". "Daisy, daisy etc......"tony smythhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17771763749137149585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-65560162100120812292013-11-14T05:43:14.510-08:002013-11-14T05:43:14.510-08:00Yep, I think he's wrong too.Juts struck by the...Yep, I think he's wrong too.Juts struck by the fact thta it came up in the Irish Times right after reading your piece. <br />According to Martin Ford, contrary to what mant people think, robots will replace not just blue collar, spanner and wrench type jobs. ers a link to a blog robot's potential effect on employment and society. <br />robotnation.blogspot.comtony smythhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17771763749137149585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-20408055556602485152013-11-13T15:32:54.207-08:002013-11-13T15:32:54.207-08:00@Tony Smyth-
"These fears are almost certain...@Tony Smyth-<br /><br />"These fears are almost certainly exaggerated..."<br /><br />Let me guess: what followed was a variation on "when we've had technical revolutions the jobs didn't go away....therefore it will happen again: these robots will create new jobs." <br /><br />Maybe not. But I'll have something to say on this soon. I think it's wrong. (Obviously)michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13526042582094867513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-53139244040757715972013-11-13T15:28:22.095-08:002013-11-13T15:28:22.095-08:00@ Prof. Wagner-
I've added your Zukofsky blog...@ Prof. Wagner-<br /><br />I've added your Zukofsky blog to that stuff over there ------><br /><br />Your riff on people not knowing how to handle leisure is right in my wheelhouse. John Dewey had a term: "occupational psychosis," which meant that people spend so much time and psychic energy at their jobs that, even when they have time off, that's all they can talk or think about: their co-workers, office politics, who's being treated fairly or not, what someone said, what's wrong at work, etc. They don't know what to do with themselves when they aren't expending their life-energies in making other people wealthy. <br /><br />Chomsky said one of the reasons democracy in Unistat is such a sham is that people are so overworked (but not really complaining about it out of fear) that they come home exhausted, try to understand what's going on by watching TV "news", feel the need to accept what they see as "probably right", then drink and go to bed, year after year until retirement...in which they often die, because they never learned how to manage their actual non-wage-slave time in something that stokes their internal fires of creativity. <br /><br />Up until the 20th century, "liberal arts" were THE royal road to learning how to be truly human..."leisure time" was the time to realize your human capabilities. The word was changed by PR and advertising types into something like the time to loaf in a La-Z-Boy, drinking beer and watching football. Consuming stuff: that's "leisure"! <br /><br />It's been a loooong time since I've had a job with regular hours (it looks like I'll never have one again), but I'm never bored. Never. I may be emotionally "down" a lot because of perceived lack of self-actualization, but I regularly hear cracks from friends that they wished they had me as a teacher in high school or university, or other kind things. <br /><br />I'm NEVER bored: books, writing, guitar playing, listening to music, talking with friends, watching old movies, hiking, doing yoga, meditating, doing research, bicycle riding, following sports ironically, following my own gnostic maneuvers.<br /><br />In typing out this little rantish thing I realized this "problem" seems another Missing Public Discussion.<br />michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13526042582094867513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-83373731029602712542013-11-13T14:59:41.835-08:002013-11-13T14:59:41.835-08:00@Psuke-
In the Land of Oz, it seems robots are mi...@Psuke-<br /><br />In the Land of Oz, it seems robots are mining metals in waste, but it's hard to get a line on exactly what's going on, because I guess I don't know enough about the varieties of mining coupled with waste. O! My ignorance knows no bounds, truly!<br /><br />http://www.garbologie.com/landfill-mining/<br />http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2013-09/mining-company-uses-robotic-trucks<br /><br />For me, reading Singularitarians is important because their ideas represent how extreme things might get; they might turn out to be "right"; they give all sorts of insight into various aspects of sophisticated ways humans project in a visionary way; even if their forecasts are terrible and represent some gnostic variant in the human mind about "rapture" or "transcendence" their thinking contains tons of hard science; and finally, I agree with Stewart Brand who once said he follows the fringe movements to see "where the center might go," something like that.<br /><br />There's a documentary on Kurzweil that I found quite moving: he loved his dad and his dad died far too young, and Kurz wants to do something to bring him back. It's almost painfully poignant. He's clearly a genius. His elaborations on Moore's Law represents one way to compare RAW's riffs on the Jumping Jesus Phenomenon...only RAW was less of a True Believer in what "will" happen by, say, 2030.<br /><br />Your query about robots and the 1%: I have not seen ONE good answer for this yet. Lenin said the history of capitalism will result in imperialism, because capital must always be in search of new markets. Maybe they can raise the standard of living enough in Africa in order to market First World goods to Africans? <br /><br />I don't see this an an adequate answer, and I had to stretch a lot just to put it forth.michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13526042582094867513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-31421492846768821202013-11-13T05:58:50.120-08:002013-11-13T05:58:50.120-08:00Just by coincidence (or not) this was in a column ...Just by coincidence (or not) this was in a column in Todays Irish Times:<br /><br />The rise of the 1 per cent in the Robotic Age <br />Rising global inequality may not just be a cyclical phenomenon <br />Rising global inequality may not just be a cyclical phenomenon; something structural could be going on. The rise of the 1 per cent might be a function of the emerging Robotic Age: there is little that can be done, now or in the near future, that can’t be done better by machines. Economic recovery, such as it is, will not generate nearly as many jobs as in the past. A percentage point of GDP growth is not the job creating machine that it used to be. Dystopian visions of the future of work see the activities of 99 per cent of us split between being either unemployed or writing apps that enable the 1 per cent to lead rich and fulfilling lives. <br />These fears are almost certainly exaggerated.<br />tony smythhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17771763749137149585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-74596576649847100272013-11-12T15:51:18.823-08:002013-11-12T15:51:18.823-08:00Great blog as usual. I remember Travis McGee'...Great blog as usual. I remember Travis McGee's friend Meyer had a boat called the John Maynard Keynes.<br /><br />I would like to pay off my bills. I don't know about meta-solutions for the whole culture. It strikes me that many of my heroes had trouble paying their bills, from Robert Anton Wilson to Anthony Braxton.<br /><br />I wonder if income inequality will resolve itself non-violently. What will The Invisible Hand do?<br /><br />I also think some of us have trouble with leisure. When we do have time on our hands, we have trouble unwinding and making use of it. We still have a lot to learn from "Bob."<br /><br />On other matters, I don't know of any good non-classical reference books. I've used The Rolling Stone Encyclopedia of Rock and Roll as a textbook, but it came out in 2004 and it doesn't blow me away.<br /><br />I did just start a new blog for Christmas: http://zukofsky.blogspot.com/ .Eric Wagnerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04312033917401203598noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-6849172497397812962013-11-12T12:31:57.922-08:002013-11-12T12:31:57.922-08:00Deathless Poesy
On Reincarnation
I haven't m...Deathless Poesy<br /><br />On Reincarnation<br /><br />I haven't made a dime<br />on poetry this time<br /><br />--<br /><br />We can think our way out of any<br />problem once we get our back<br />against the wall, the solution<br />isn't obvious. History shows too<br />many examples of what usually is<br />the way out. Volcanos take down<br />the dominant civ, Minoan, Roman.<br />No thinker predicted Greeces<br />rise to philosophical prominence.<br />No one imagined the Feudal patron<br />model rising from the darkness of<br />wandering tribes scrounging for <br />food.<br /><br />The rhetoric about intelligence<br />seems to overlook that hampered<br />by the nanny State any change is<br />considered anathema because it<br />will effect some vested interest.<br /><br />My money is on those who feel,<br />because if you can feel what you<br />do you will stop doing what brings<br />harm.<br /><br />Convince the rich that selling<br />people money is a good business<br />plan and all our problems will<br />disappear. just keep an eye out<br />for the unintended consequences<br />of any solution.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-4468130000694016242013-11-12T09:49:43.076-08:002013-11-12T09:49:43.076-08:00I read that post (shall I confess I've been on...I read that post (shall I confess I've been on a reading jag of your blog? Playing catch up since I discovered it only a few weeks ago, thanks to the Summer of Lovecraft post.) I agree that Kurzweil and the Singularitarians come off as True Believers, and I try not to argue Religion.<br /><br />Are the robots mining waste dumps? Or just delving into the dangerous (and dwindling) world of mining virgin materials? Because that is heading towards a very dead dead end.<br /><br />I am still curious how the ultra-wealthy think that having robots replace workers to cheaply manufacture items practically no one will be able to afford, (because, well, no money) is a growth strategy. Or maybe they'll just transfer the money in between themselves and the rest of us can come up with some alternate solution while their backs are turned.Psukehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01116423188181098527noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-9081041572037905312013-11-12T03:13:18.154-08:002013-11-12T03:13:18.154-08:00Anon had written:
>There's a big distincti...Anon had written:<br /><br />>There's a big distinction between<br />a 'futurist' who is unconscious of<br />being full of shit and an SF type<br />who knows he isn't predicting any<br />'real' but is playing with ideas<br />to see how they work out.<<br /><br />This seems like a great point to me. And in my tone and bias (I admitted a few hrs ago in one of the comments around here that I think robots are pretty cool) is a projection, based on what I perceive in the acceleration of the digitization, the numbers from the "jobless recovery" (stock market through the roof/real unemployment at around 14% and stagnating), my impressions from the work of roboticists and what they say they can do (almost universally: you ain't seen nothin' yet), and a bunch of other factors.<br /><br />I know Popper's work on the poverty of historicism and the peril of pretending you've got a special silver ball to predict the future. (RAW called Popper's stances on those Platonists over the past 2300 yrs "fundamentalist historicists"). <br /><br />Playing with ideas is my thing, like a SF writer. I find something All-Too-Human in futurist guys like Kurzweil and Moravec. They're both unfathomably brilliant, obviously. But they act like True Believers, almost zealots, when they talk about What Will Certainly Happen Because of Certain Laws of Technological Growth. <br /><br />I don't want to come off as some sort of fundamentalist futurist, dystopian bend. Let us not forget the hidden good of what robots have done already, esp in the elimination of dire, nasty jobs....like bomb squad detonator.<br /><br />Do I think technological unemployment is going to get a lot worse? Yes, that's how I figure it, knowing I could be wrong. But the suffering already: human caused and needless. That's why I may seem railing.<br /><br />But yea: Kurzweil/Moravec rhetoric is potent, heady stuff. I'll drink some and check it out. For thinking about possible scenarios, give me science fiction...written by humans. michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13526042582094867513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-39436431470713563132013-11-12T00:19:19.021-08:002013-11-12T00:19:19.021-08:00Psuke-
Here's the amazing thing: manufacturin...Psuke-<br /><br />Here's the amazing thing: manufacturing jobs are coming back to Unistat! But: there's hardly any jobs in those factories, because of robots/automation. Shareholders LOVE this! <br /><br />About the human suffering? Talk to the Invisible Hand.<br /><br />Robots will not only forage for recyclable metals, but they will MINE them. There are already prototypes.<br /><br />My impression is that most people don't understand at all what's happening, and think robots are pretty cool when they see them on some 75 second bit on Eyewitless News. There seems a small percentage who assume robots will take someone else's job, but not theirs.<br /><br />I remember reading Hans Moravec in 1988: we will download ourselves into silicon and be immortal and blast off for the stars! Those who choose to remain meatware and not upgrade will face harsh consequences, much like being the retarded kid on the kindergarten school playground.<br /><br />I covered him a bit here:<br />http://overweeninggeneralist.blogspot.com/2011/07/musing-on-two-mad-scientists-part-one.htmlmichaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13526042582094867513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-18922485947204401352013-11-12T00:10:34.725-08:002013-11-12T00:10:34.725-08:00@Tom Jackson-
I read a few reviews of Cowens'...@Tom Jackson-<br /><br />I read a few reviews of Cowens's book and get the feeling he's very well-fed and secure in his own biosurvival. But I haven't read his new book.michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13526042582094867513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-66732442971201359962013-11-12T00:08:42.704-08:002013-11-12T00:08:42.704-08:00Anon-
Your tone about all this harmonizes with mi...Anon-<br /><br />Your tone about all this harmonizes with mine really well: Yea, it's owners of the means of production vs. Would-Be Workers now, so where is the Marx? The 1% win it all! Yea, we get it: you're all better than us because of your billions. You're...just great. How cool it must be to be you. Gosh I wish I had worked my whole life in cutthroat competition in order to show I'm an Alpha! But I didn't. Good for you! You won!<br /><br />Now: can we get real? Or do you want to make this a Blade Runner world? A worldwide prison planet? Really? This was your vision? If so, not all that impressive.<br /><br />And good points about Art. Try as I might, I don't see it. How do we know most of that commodified art we see now isn't already done by algorithms?<br /><br />I haven't delved far enough into Andrew McAfee to see what he means by science fiction, but even Heinlein once worked for Upton Sinclair's campaign to end poverty, and was for awhile a proponent of guaranteed annual wage ideas. From what I've seen, SF is teeming with ideas like the UBI. Edward Bellamy's 1888 Looking Backward was influenced by Henry George's alternative economic ideas. Today I read a couple of articles about Mack Reynolds, so thanks for mentioning him. (After reading the entry on "economics" in the Clute and Nicholls Encyclopedia of Science Fiction, the bulk of economic ideas in SF have run more towards the Social Darwinian ends of libertarianism (fuck the poor!). <br /><br />In Clute/Nicholls Brian Stableford has an article on "money" in the history of SF. George O. Smith's 1945 novel Pandora's Millions sounds interesting: It is about "a desperate race to find a new symbolic medium of exchange following the invention of a matter-duplicator." This reminded me a little of 3-D printing and moreso the promise of nanotechnology...From that same article: "Jack Vance has been particularly ingenious in the invention of various monetary systems appropriately or ironically adapted ti different cultures."<br /><br />I'm trying to gather some solutions to "paying for spying."<br /><br />When you say your poetry will save you...always feel free to link to whatever you want here!michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13526042582094867513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-67365686544294992602013-11-11T23:34:44.228-08:002013-11-11T23:34:44.228-08:00@Tony Smyth: expert on Japanese culture and Fukush...@Tony Smyth: expert on Japanese culture and Fukushima and many other things:<br /><br />Thanks for bringing up Martin Ford; I'd only recently become aware of him. Someone on some blog responded to something Bryndolfsson or McAfee wrote and cited Martin Ford and the Universal Basic Income idea, which obviously must happen. <br /><br />It seems to me the basic work is in getting people out of those neurological ruts in thinking about little things like value, wealth, money, and what it means to live. And you're right: RAW was a proponent of the UBI, and other isomorphic ideas.<br /><br />I find the Japanese cultural relationship with robots totally fascinating. And I have as yet not said outright that I'm very Japanese in this way: I think they're great! It's not their fault (or their makers' or programmers' faults that our stupid economic system puts my beloved humans in jeopardy. The only other problem I have with them is their - very real, as far as I can see - potential to get too good as warriors and kill us all. Aside from that, they're perfectly lovely.<br /><br />That riff about proving you're not a robot made me laff out loud, literally: hey man: I'm sorry: if I were better at manipulating this computer, I'd tell it to let Tony Smyth just post with impunity.michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13526042582094867513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-83347285456352023672013-11-11T20:39:14.374-08:002013-11-11T20:39:14.374-08:00I suspect that many Unistatians are unconcerned ab...I suspect that many Unistatians are unconcerned about the rise of the robot because most of those shops have already be sent overseas, and all they can get now are the shitty jobs no one's figured out how to outsource (or automate) *yet.*<br /><br />I confess I am somewhat ambivalent about automation because I'm curious how it is going to play out alongside of our diminishing resources, re: oil, copper, iron etc. Or perhaps they'll teach the robots to forage their own building materials from the trash heaps. Now *that* I'd like to see.<br /><br />I feel we are in for a wild ride, and so many people (not just this continent) are going "lalalalala I can't hear you!" Or are futurists who say "We'll just upload ourselves and live virtually!" (Yes, I knew someone who advocated that as a solution. And he meant it.)Psukehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01116423188181098527noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-27244355059118850752013-11-11T10:49:23.626-08:002013-11-11T10:49:23.626-08:00I've been waiting to get my hands on a copy of...I've been waiting to get my hands on a copy of Tyler Cowen's latest book, "Average Is Over," which predicts that income inequality will rise and that a small minority of people will prosper who are good at working with machines and computers. Cleveland Okie (Tom Jackson)https://www.blogger.com/profile/07810736442596736041noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-39929292316533862692013-11-10T14:23:14.941-08:002013-11-10T14:23:14.941-08:00What I find hilarious is that the
economic models ...What I find hilarious is that the<br />economic models and political ways<br />of the past have to struggle with<br />the rising tide of the future.<br />Where's Marxism when there are no<br />more workers left. Maoism without<br />any peasants. Capitalism with no<br />money coming in or going out. Will<br />we wind up in Cauty future where<br />everyone is a cop and everything is<br />against the law ?<br /><br />Every one who starts to think puts<br />part of the world at risk, and we<br />seem to have risked it all at once.<br /><br />I'm glad to know my poetry will<br />save me, if I can just offend a<br />bit to secure a spot in jail for<br />the necessities, I'll still have<br />a job to do.<br /><br />Excuse me if I don't buy that Art<br />is in that great a danger from the<br />machines. SRI or Burning Man will<br />show you a compatible future.<br />Commodified art on the other hand<br />should be taken over by machines<br />to rid us of the pretensions of<br />those who practice it.<br /><br />I'm assuming the SF referred to by<br />the academic is Mack reynolds who<br />had a workable system (except for<br />how we get there from here).<br /><br />There's a big distinction between<br />a 'futurist' who is unconscious of<br />being full of shit and an SF type<br />who knows he isn't predicting any<br />'real' but is playing with ideas<br />to see how they work out.<br /><br />We're never going to run out of<br />work, every new generation needs<br />to be taught about the world and<br />no one has ever learned enough<br />to say they know it all. The real<br />question is how to get the tokens<br />used to participate in the real<br />economy ?<br /><br />Expecting the morally bankrupt<br />Republicrats to solve this problem<br />is like teaching a pig to fly.<br />They can't even understand why<br />Net neutrality existed at all.<br /><br />It's also highly doubtful that a<br />system like fascism can exist if<br />there is no middle class base to<br />support it.<br /><br />The current system of paying for<br />spying could be extended to pay<br />anyone who kept an eye on their<br />neighbors, it would also keep them<br />busy. Whether this is useful is<br />highly suspect.<br /><br />It is quite clear that this does<br />need to be debated and publicized<br />until it has become an issue for<br />solutions. <br /><br />Compressorhead solves the RIAAs<br />problems, no more prima donna rock<br />stars and the promoboys keep all<br />the money from a $30 album on a<br />3cent CD. Given their tin ears a<br />tin artist should sound just fine.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1178284085080580526.post-12395805817934842432013-11-10T05:48:07.650-08:002013-11-10T05:48:07.650-08:00Yeah, interesting stuff. Ages ago I used to teach ...Yeah, interesting stuff. Ages ago I used to teach English in Fanuc, a japanese company that makes yellow industrial robots. This was early 1980s.In one class I asked if they could learn anything from America and they said 'no, we've learned everything we can'. This was the 80s!!!Thatcher came over to Japan and visited the Mt Fuji factory, where robots built robots. She wanted them to build ships in the UK, but had to be told that 'nope they couldnt do that'. <br /><br />Theres a great book on the same lines as this blog called 'The lights in the tunnel' by Martin Ford.His particular focus is on, "What if technology progresses to the point where a substantial fraction of the jobs now performed by people are instead performed autonomously by machines or computers." This will inevitably lead, Ford and others in his camp believe, to an "extreme future scenario with 75 percent unemployment." <br /><br />I read somewhere RAW writing about everyone should be a basic living wage, regrdless of if working or not. This of course would be anathema to Republicans, Tories and others, but eventually its going to come to that - either that or revolution and/or a fascist state (and we seem to heading to the latter fast anyhow!!). <br /><br />Anyhow, Fords book ties well with this, though many may not like his prescriptions to solve the problems robots will cause.<br /><br />Interestingly,robots are not considered a threat in Japan, but a means of relieving drudgery. Mind you Japan is a rapidly aging society with a declining number of young workers. <br /><br />Now i have to prove I'm NOT A ROBOT in order to post this!!!!tony smythhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17771763749137149585noreply@blogger.com